think-consider-the-unknowns

Produces a known-unknowns ledger by enumerating the relevant evidence not in hand, the variables that bear on a judgment but are unknown or unobservable, rating each unknown by its bearing and its obtainability, then re-rating confidence against the mapped gap. Use when a consequential one-off judgment rests on thin or partial evidence, no usable base rate exists, and the confidence on the table may be inflated by…