think-dialectical-bootstrapping

Produces a dialectical estimate that improves a single committed number by polling the inner crowd, make a first estimate, assume it is wrong and list why, read whether that pushes the answer too high or too low, make a second estimate from those changed assumptions, then mechanically average the two. Use when a hard, one-off, bounded-scale numeric estimate (a year, a percentage, a count, a forecast) is about to be…